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Natural disasters in 2015 will hurt 50% more people!

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  • Natural disasters in 2015 will hurt 50% more people!

    Apparently there is a prediction by Oxfam in a report they released in 2009 that states that in 2015 50% more people will be injured or killed by natural disasters. Well, so far... it looks like they may be right. Towards the end of 2014 we have seen an increase in unusually severe weather around the world, volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, and biggest of all... flooding/landslides. Just a few days ago five tornadoes ripped through Mississippi, Georgia, and Louisiana. Are these natural disasters we are experiencing conformation of Oxfam's 2009 report? I guess we will know for sure in by the middle or end of 2015.
    By 2015, on average over 375 million people per year are likely to be affected by natural disasters. This is over 50% more than have been affected in an average year during the last decade, a 2009 Oxfam report had mentioned forecasting the natural disasters 2015 statistics.

  • #2
    Does that '50% more people' mean that there will be more natural disasters? Or does it mean that more people will be unprepared for natural disasters? I kind of think that. as we go along, the number of people hurt by natural disasters should get less and less, not more and more. For a start, with every natural disaster that happens, we are getting more information about how to predict the next one. Like, after the tsunami a decade ago, we now have early warning systems in place.

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    • #3
      I think it will be a combination of both. If you have not noticed, there have been more severe weather and natural disasters at the end of this year then in previous years. We had what multiple Tsunamis, 10 or more volcanic eruptions, a lot of earthquakes and landslides, several floods... the list goes on. Not to mention unusual weather like severe winter weather recently in India that killed several people. However, people believe that the government will take care of them. That the early warning systems will keep them safe. They don't realize the importance of preparing for the worse and hoping for the best. Then there are even more who was never taught to be concerned about such things. They go about their lives with a business as usual attitude and do not inform their children the severity and danger these events are.

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      • #4
        It might sound harsh, but nature has a way of balancing things. Human population has been continuously growing since the end of the Great Famine and Black Death in 1350, when it was around 370 million. These days there are 7,2 billion people on this planet, and they've been doing a lot of damage here. It only stands to reason that nature will hit back.

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        • Nikkishea21
          Nikkishea21 commented
          Editing a comment
          I totally agree with you on this one. There is a natural order that must be maintained and the earth is out of balance at this point in time. It is evident with the drastic changes occurring now, when it comes on to climate change, disasters and even man made illicit activities. The earth is overflowing with uneasiness and it will find ways of ensuring that the balance is restored. It is going result in a lot of happenings and at this point we need to be on our guard as i believe that something big is yet to come...very big.

      • #5
        I think the numbers simply go up roughly in proportion to population growth and the increase of densely-populated cities. Any serious study of historical disasters shows at least as many as we are experiencing now, but with less population and without the global media coverage. Also, the title is a little misleading, as it depends upon the definition of "hurt". They use it interchangeably with "affected". That would likely indicate property damage rather than injury.
        Note too, that prediction for 2015 is "between 336 million and 413 million in an average year". That is far different than saying we will definitely see that number in 2015. A quick glance at the graph shows many years far below that average, with a few huge spikes that raise the overall average. We could easily see several more below average years, followed by a single devastating year at any time. The model just shows the increase over time but cannot predict any solid numbers for a given year.
        kevinkimers likes this.

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        • kevinkimers
          kevinkimers commented
          Editing a comment
          Absolutely. These are just "theories" and not absolute. Great assessment of the information. I guess I should have been much more specific when I posted this information. These are just predictions based on old data, but there are several factors involved that were not really accounted for. Such as population density in a given area may have increased or decreased over the years. They were also not very clear on what they meant by affected. Being me, I automatically assume material damage over human causalities or injuries... but that is me. The data is not specific in this. When they say hurt they could been loss of material items such as their home or vehicle or they could mean loss of life or injury to person. So the data is not very conclusive, however, it is a good insight as to what may occur and something to look out for for the year to see if they were correct in their "predictions".

      • #6
        I don't buy into reports of natural disasters 5-10 years ahead of time. Meteorologists and climatologists can study el Nino, but it still isn't going to predict accurately 50% more causalities. In 10 years populations can rise quite drastically, and in some areas of overpopulation as it is, if it is already a volatile place, then they could probably, logically predict an INCREASE of deaths. But unless the population has increased 50%, I don't think there is truly any accurate way of determining that large of an increase of deaths/injuries.

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        • #7
          I wouldn't doubt that this is going to happen in the next year. We can't really be certain about these numbers though. They are just predictions and we can't really predict how this weather is going to be next year. It might be worse than we think or even better than we had hoped for. All we can do is prepare.

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          • #8
            I think the numbers are logical, and like others pointed out affected by doesn't necessarily mean death. It could just mean that that many people lose property or vehicles and not necessarily their life. I like to keep my family prepared for a myriad of circumstances because you just never know what might happen.

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            • #9
              These predictions are not as accurate as they seem. Whenever the imminent time comes closer, the prediction changes as the conditions change. I have seen this with weather predictions. They can be pretty accurate most of the time and then they suddenly change and become completely contrary to predictions. No-one is able to account for all the changes or no-one saw it coming. The degree of accuracy is unstable. I read that there were signs and warnings before the tsunami, but they were ignored. People are very reluctant to leave their comfort zone and therefore very reluctant to believe the worst in most instances.

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